Seismic Resilience and Adaptation of Infrastructure and Social Systems to Changing Arctic Environments

Arctic change is accelerating environmentally, ecologically, and socially. In order to understand how these changes interact and how they influence seismic response and consequences, a holistic investigation is required that incorporates human impacts, natural system, and built infrastructure. In order to protect Arctic infrastructure and environmental systems, and also design new sustainable systems, scientists and engineers need to deal with the threats facing the infrastructure and communities due to natural hazards like earthquakes. This includes resilient systems that consider natural, built, and social environments and adaptation practices that reduce the risks and uncertainty in dealing with these hazards, while considering the local and global climatic changes.

Alaska is one of the most seismically active states in the U.S. with some of the largest historic earthquakes, especially in North America. Seismically induced hazards can impact both natural environments. As the built environment expands worldwide and becomes more interdependent, the risk of earthquake-induced damage becomes harder to evaluate. Thus, an ideal resiliency model requires consideration of multiple interdependent variables, including climate variability, infrastructure management and planning, risk assessment and uncertainty measures, disaster response and mitigation, institutional capacity, and social-economic repercussions. A robust understanding of community response requires involvement of diverse interest groups with differing priorities, capacities, and social positions.

This collaborative planning project formed convergent research team and built technical and community capacity to investigate the resilience of Arctic infrastructure and social systems in response to seismic events in light of a changing climate. The project brought together a research community across disciplines to set the groundwork for future research in seismic resiliency of Arctic systems. The specific outcomes of the project include:

-          In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted using a dedicated protocol and array of questions to guide interviews. These were performed via videoconference, transcribed, and thematically coded using qualitative data management software. The interviews identified major challenges and opportunities in addressing Arctic seismic resilience.

-          A workshop was hosted by the University of New Hampshire in Anchorage, Alaska on September 20-22, 2021, to facilitate convergent discussions and to assess and prioritize the research needs and future directions of seismic resilience in the Arctic. The core objectives were to (1) foster collaboration among the diverse group of participants; (2) identify, define, and prioritize research needs and ideas; and (3) propose strategies for outreach to Indigenous communities and best practices for co-production of knowledge. Live survey questions throughout the workshop helped to understand attendees’ big picture perspectives and prepare participants for insightful discussions and follow-on group activities. Participants were asked to share their main concerns or priority topics for (a) seismic resilience of Arctic and sub-Arctic built infrastructure and (b) seismic resilience of the Arctic and sub-Arctic social systems and whether those are significantly impacted by climate change.  The workshop identified priority concerns in the seismic resilience of built infrastructure and social systems and how climate change will affect these concerns. Participants drafted six convergent research ideas to address the highest priority concerns and motivate future research initiatives. More data is available on the workshop website at https://sites.google.com/view/1st-arctic-seismic-resiliency/home. This workshop brought together about 50 participants from different sectors including researchers, policy makers, first responders and disaster recovery planners, industry partners, local and Indigenous community representatives, and other related stakeholders. The participants’ expertise covered a wide range of disciplines ranging from earthquake engineers, seismologists, permafrost experts, geo-hydrologists, climate scientists, disaster managers and urban developers, social scientists, risk and uncertainty experts, economists and community development professionals. Although most of the attendees were from the United States, researchers from Greenland (Denmark), Iceland, and Japan also participated.

-          Interaction between local communities and natural and built environments is certainly the key to the success of convergence research. To address the community’s apprehensions concerning climate change and the resilience of infrastructure in Alaska, a community outreach initiative was undertaken in Copper River Valley, Alaska, on June 1, 2023. During this gathering, participants engaged in various group activities aimed at deliberating their concerns and perspectives. The primary focus was on understanding their most critical needs during emergency (i.e., earthquake) scenarios. Participants were prompted to think about four key questions including climate stressors in their locality, seismic events, damages, and works to be done.

-          The findings from the workshop and other activities were integrated to identify influential variables for seismic infrastructure resilience in the Arctic, considering both engineering and coupled human-environment perspectives. This knowledge and data were leveraged to develop a preliminary system dynamics model to simulate seismic resilience processes.  

-          Three PhD students and three undergraduate researchers were involved in this project. They received mentoring and training, gained knowledge, and engaged in experiences on seismic resiliency and earthquake impacts on civil infrastructure and social systems. The graduate students were also involved in publications and dissemination of the research outcome.