Navigating Convergent Pressures on Arctic Development

Few transformations are as dramatic or as complex as those occurring now in the Arctic. There are rapid changes in climate and the environment, in international treaties and regulations, in national security, and claims for territory. At the same time, Arctic communities and Indigenous Peoples are looking to find their place in a changing global economy. This convergence of changes and aspirations is leading to questions about what kinds of infrastructure are needed, where it should be located, and how this may impact Arctic people and environment. This project is using a combination of observations, satellites, maps, and models to identify where useful and viable locations for new development might be located. These kinds of data and analysis have not been combined before to make such an assessment. These locations are then explored with communities, emergency managers, environmental scientists, industry representatives, local governments, and members of Indigenous groups. Through this merging of environmental sciences, real-world engineering, financial analyses, and cultural concerns, the project is documenting likely future developments and understand their impacts on the Arctic environment and its people.

Alongside amplified Arctic environmental change, changes in global markets, regional geopolitics, and community aspirations are motivating visions of new opportunities to develop or enhance new industries in shipping, resource extraction, tourism, and fisheries. At the same time, Arctic communities and Indigenous peoples are making clear their aspirations for the future. This project asks how these converging pressures will shape Arctic development between now and 2050. The project is using an approach that is novel through its convergence of diverse disciplines, as follows. Plausible locations for development are being identified using natural resource distributions, national- and company-level ambitions, and community aspirations. High-resolution climate scenarios, observations, and satellite data are providing the environmental context for access and safety requirements. Financial and environmental assessments, regulations, and treaties provide a third layer of evaluation. The integrated product is then interrogated in an iterative manner with an independent International Reference Group of academic, Indigenous and practitioner experts. Through this process, the project is developing an assessment identifying convergent geophysical and socioeconomic pressures on Arctic development, and their potential cascading impacts on local communities, the environment, global commodity chains, and international relations. This assessment seeks to provide a knowledge resource for engagements in grounded community-based research as well as supporting communities, governments, businesses and industries seeking to navigate the New Arctic.