Pursuing Opportunities for Long-term Arctic Resilience for Infrastructure and Society (POLARIS)

The Arctic is warming at nearly four times the global average, creating urgent challenges for coastal communities. The POLARIS project aims to answer two questions: how do environmental stressors and infrastructure disruptions affect community well-being? And, what assets could help Alaskan coastal communities adapt to rapid environmental and social change? Over six years, our transdisciplinary team of researchers and local knowledge holders focused on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay regions to understand coastal erosion, food security, and human migration.

The research was organized into three converging pillars, producing the following key findings:

1. Coastal Hazards and Infrastructure Risks: Using advanced mapping technology and community-based monitoring, we quantified significant erosion that threatens critical infrastructure. In Dillingham, 99% of the surveyed shoreline is eroding, with specific “hotspots” endangering the city’s sewage lagoon and the regional hospital. In Chevak, we documented the devastation caused by Typhoon Merbok (2022), observing how extreme storm surges destroy boats, smokehouses, and drying racks that are essential for fishing and food security. The findings confirmed that inadequate infrastructure contributes to vulnerability to environmental hazards.
2. Food Security in a Changing Landscape: Our modeling of subsistence resources revealed significant environmental changes occurring across the tundra. Predictive models for culturally important berries (such as cloudberries and blueberries) indicate that suitable habitats are shifting northward and upslope. As a result, harvesters will need to travel farther and spend more on fuel to access important wild foods. Surveys confirmed a profound reliance on wild foods, with salmon constituting over half of the harvest weight in Dillingham. We found that immobility—the decision to remain in a threatened location—is strongly driven by access to these specific wild foods.
3. Migration and Policy Barriers: Our research found that most residents are not planning to leave their communities despite environmental risks. We found strong cultural ties and subsistence networks encourage people to adapt in place. However, our legal analysis revealed that current U.S. disaster laws (the Stafford Act, for example) are designed for sudden events such as hurricanes, not slow-onset disasters like permafrost thaw. This policy gap prevents communities from accessing federal funds to relocate infrastructure before it fails.

The POLARIS project prioritized building local capacity to ensure that the research benefits the communities directly.

1. The Film Cumikluten: To communicate our findings beyond academia, we produced the documentary film Cumikluten (“Pay Attention”) featuring local voices and observations about change­—and serving as a permanent cultural record and an educational tool for future generations.
2. Education and Youth Engagement: We conducted intensive workshops in Chevak, teaching students to measure coastal change in their own backyards. By connecting Western science with local knowledge, we engaged over 150 students in understanding the physics of erosion and the biology of permafrost.
3. For Stakeholders: We moved away from “helicopter research” to training and employing local staff to monitor erosion using drones and other professional equipment. This empowered communities to “own” their data. For example, the Dillingham Coastal Hazard Analysis Report is currently being used by the city to apply for millions of dollars in federal infrastructure mitigation funds.

POLARIS demonstrated that Arctic resilience is rooted in the flexibility of social systems and the continuity of subsistence practices. The project has provided these communities with precise geophysical data to plan for infrastructure protection and the policy analysis required to engage with necessary legal reform. By integrating local knowledge and Western science, we have created a more holistic understanding of how Arctic societies can navigate a rapidly changing world.