Economic Assessment of Permafrost Degradation Effects on the Housing Sector in the Russian Arctic

This article is devoted to the methodology and analysis of the results of economic assessment and forecasting of the consequences of global climate change in the form of permafrost thawing and degradation for the housing sector in eight regions of the Russian Arctic. Changes in the state of permafrost soils during the implementation of the most negative (scenario RCP 8.5) of the IPCC forecast options as the most appropriate to the conditions of the Russian Arctic were taken as a physio-geographic basis for the assessment. It is shown that, under a conservative scenario of the housing sector development in this macroregion of Russia in 2020–2050, the annual average cost of maintenance and restoration of the lost housing stock will exceed ₽30 bln. With the implementation of the modernization scenario, the cost above will increase to ₽36 bln. The maximum expected loss is predicted in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Krasnoyarsk krai, and the minimum, in the Chukotka and Khanty–Mansi autonomous okrugs.