The Arctic Carbon and Climate (ACCLIMATE) Observatory: Tundra Ecosystem Carbon Balance and Old Carbon Loss as a Consequence of Permafrost Degradation
The future trajectory of Earth's atmosphere depends on the response of land and ocean to a changing environment, especially the potential for substantial sustained carbon release in high latitude regions like the Arctic. A key question in understanding how the Earth system will respond is whether there are tipping points—global carbon cycle surprises—that will make the effects of environmental change such as sea-level rise, extreme weather, droughts, and impacts on agriculture occur faster than currently projected by models. Permafrost carbon, the remnants of plants, microbes, and animals accumulated in perennially frozen Arctic soil over thousands of years, currently holds twice as much carbon as the atmosphere, and could be such a tipping point. Release of just a fraction of this frozen carbon as carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere would significantly increase the rate of future global environmental change. Each additional ton of carbon released from the permafrost region to the atmosphere incurs additional costs to society and presents the challenge of requiring sustained long-term observations to quantify rates and unravel mechanisms in order to forecast change. This project will establish the Arctic Carbon and Climate (ACCLIMATE) permafrost carbon observatory, which will use field observations to measure carbon fluxes, and ecosystem carbon pools in a tundra ecosystem that is undergoing rapid and irreversible change due to regional warming. The project will also include training of a postdoctoral researcher and several undergraduate students, and outreach activities involving high school students and teachers.
The Arctic Carbon and Climate (ACCLIMATE) permafrost carbon observatory uses field observations to measure carbon fluxes, carbon isotope ratios, and ecosystem carbon pools in a tundra ecosystem that is undergoing rapid and irreversible change due to regional warming. Permafrost temperature at the Eight Mile Lake research watershed in Interior Alaska has been monitored for several decades starting before permafrost degradation began in the early 1990s. The impact of permafrost degradation on plants, microbes, and ecosystem carbon balance began to be documented in the early 2000s. The overall research plan will answer three focal questions: (1) Does warming and permafrost degradation cause a net release of carbon from the ecosystem to the atmosphere, and how does the magnitude change over years to decades; (2) What proportion of this carbon release is derived from old carbon that comprises the bulk of the soil carbon pool, and will this increase as thaw progresses; and (3) How does change in surface hydrology interact with thawing to control old carbon losses and the partitioning of carbon dioxide and methane, Carbon measurements, along with other key ecosystem variables collected by this observatory, will be organized for benchmarking regional and Earth System models, and coupled to that process through ongoing synthesis and model inter-comparison activities. These technical activities will be integrated with knowledge-transfer activities that link results to the broader scientific community, as well as to the broader public.
The Arctic Carbon and Climate (ACCLIMATE) permafrost carbon observatory is using field observations to measure carbon fluxes, carbon isotope ratios, and ecosystem carbon pools in a tundra ecosystem that is undergoing rapid and irreversible change due to regional warming. Permafrost temperature at the Eight Mile Lake research watershed in Interior Alaska has been monitored for several decades starting before permafrost degradation began in the early 1990s. Beginning in 2019, over the course of five years, a field team of two will collect permafrost and carbon measurements at the Eight Mile Lake study site located in a watershed in the northern foothills of the Alaska Range just outside the Denali National Park boundary. In this area, researchers established three terrestrial sites that represent differing amounts of disturbance from permafrost thaw. Core environmental and carbon cycling variables are measured across this gradient of thaw. This project is also engaging non-Alaskan and Alaskan teachers and high-school students at the ACCLIMATE observatory in Year 1 and 2. Researchers use scientific enquiry and data to form the foundation for students to learn more about ecology and exchange ideas about the impact of a changing environment inside and outside the Arctic. From January to June 2019, six students held weekly Skype meetings to discuss basic elements of the ecosystem carbon cycle and prepare for the trip to Alaska. The students then spent 3–10 June at ACCLIMATE conducting data collection, entry, and preliminary checks. In September, students from the Tri-Valley School (Denali Borough School District) will visit ACCLIMATE to collect our final sampling point of the growing season.
All logistics will be organized by the researcher and paid through the grant.
Season Field Site
2019 Alaska - Eightmile Lake
2020 Alaska - Eightmile Lake
2021 Alaska - Eightmile Lake
2022 Alaska - Eightmile Lake
2023 Alaska - Eightmile Lake
Research Collaborator(s)
Publications
Hugelius, G., J. Ramage, E. Burke, A. Chatterjee, T.L. Smallman, T. Aalto, A. Bastos, C. Biasi, J.G. Canadell, N. Chandra, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, J. Chang, L. Feng, M.W. Jones, T. Kleinen, M. Kuhn, and Lauer, 2024: Permafrost Region Greenhouse Gas Budgets Suggest a Weak CO2 Sink and CH4 and N2O Sources, But Magnitudes Differ Between Top-Down and Bottom-Up Methods, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 38(10), https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GB007969
Ramage, J., M. Kuhn, A. Virkkala, C. Voigt, M.E. Marushchak, A. Bastos, C. Biasi, J.G. Canadell, P. Ciais, E. LópezBlanco, S.M. Natali, and D. Olefeldt, 2024: The Net GHG Balance and Budget of the Permafrost Region (2000–2020) From Ecosystem Flux Upscaling, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 38(4), https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GB007953
Rodenhizer, Heidi and Natali, Susan M. and Mauritz, Marguerite and Taylor, Meghan A. and Celis, Gerardo and Kadej, Stephanie and Kelley, Allison K. and Lathrop, Emma R. and Ledman, Justin and Pegoraro, Elaine F. and Salmon, Verity G. and Schädel, Christin, 2023: Abrupt permafrost thaw drives spatially heterogeneous soil moisture and carbon dioxide fluxes in upland tundra, Global Change Biology, 29(22), https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16936
Schuur, E.A.G. B.W. Abbott, R. Commane, J. Ernakovich, E. Euskirchen, G. Hugelius, G. Grosse, M.Jones, C. Koven, V. Leshyk, D. Lawrence, and M.M. Loranty, 2022: Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 47:343-371, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847
See, C. R, A.M. Virkkala, S.M. Natali, B.M. Rogers, M. Mauritz, C. Biasi, S. Bokhorst, J. Boike, M.S. Bret-Harte, G. Celis, N. Chae, T.R. Christensen, E.A.G Schuur, and Mu, 2024: Decadal increases in carbon uptake offset by respiratory losses across northern permafrost ecosystems, Nature Climate Change, 14:853-862, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02057-4
Project Outcomes
Carbon release from the Arctic is a wildcard that could alter the future trajectory of climate change, a potential tipping point in the global carbon cycle that could accelerate sea-level rise, extreme weather, droughts, fires, and impacts on agriculture, at rates beyond those currently projected by models. The central hypothesis is that net transfer of carbon to the atmosphere will occur because of permafrost thaw and the microbial decomposition of organic carbon. Permafrost may act as an accelerating feedback to climate change if a significant amount of the old carbon that forms the bulk of the soil pool is respired to the atmosphere following permafrost thaw.
Intellectual Merit: This project supported the development of The Arctic Carbon and Climate (ACCLIMATE) permafrost carbon observatory that used field observations to measure ecosystem carbon fluxes and pools in a tundra ecosystem that is undergoing rapid and irreversible change due to regional warming. Permafrost temperature at the Eight Mile Lake research watershed in Interior Alaska has been monitored for several decades starting before permafrost degradation began in the early 1990s. This upland tundra site is located in the southern permafrost region where permafrost temperature near zero is especially sensitive to ongoing changes in climate. The impact of permafrost degradation on plants, microbes, and ecosystem carbon balance began to be documented in the early 2000s. This is a unique site that has tracked tundra ecosystem function as the degradation of permafrost unfolded over decades, and provides an important southern counterpoint to other established northern tundra research sites. Work during this project phase has provided important insight into the decadal-scale evolution of ecosystem carbon fluxes linked to permafrost thaw, as well as critical information about the loss of old carbon that is especially important to the climate feedback. Data from this project has been published in peer-reviewed scientific journals, contributed to regional science synthesis activities and publications, and archived for public use as part of the Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research database.
Broader Impacts: The ACCLIMATE observatory has integrated knowledge-transfer activities that link results to the broader scientific community, as well as to the wider public. Public outreach has occurred through established collaborations with staff of the highly visited Denali National Park, by co-hosting an annual site field trip for park seasonal staff, visitors, and local residents. This collaboration also featured a public presentation at the Murie Science and Learning Center. This project interfaced with the broader science community through ongoing synthesis work organized by the Permafrost Carbon Network. Observational datasets generated by this observatory were contributed to ongoing synthesis and modeling activities that need datasets from permafrost ecosystems for benchmarking purposes. In turn, these science synthesis activities have been linked to outreach publications aimed at broader audiences, such as NOAA’s Arctic Report Card, to communicate how a changing Arctic influences local and global society. In this way, the ACCLIMATE observatory has connected primary data collection with synthesis science and broader outreach in the service of increasing, distilling, and communicating our understanding of change in this remote region with its important consequences for global climate and society.