The Russian Maritime Arctic

The Russian maritime Arctic stretches more than 160 degrees longitude from the Norwegian-Russian border in the west, to the Bering Strait in the east. It is Russia’s vast northern coastline, an open border to the Arctic Ocean, and a marine space that presents both strategic vulnerabilities and economic opportunities. The entire coastal area is arguably undergoing the most profound changes of any region in today’s Arctic. This essay seeks to identify key influential drivers of change, and uncertainties that will plausibly determine the region’s future.    

The coastal seas along the northern frontier of Eurasia invite visions of marine transportation systems and shipping lanes connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Some Arctic shipping concepts are realistic and doable, and others are visionary but implausible. For accuracy, the historic name for the potential marine routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans across the entire Russian maritime is the Northeast Passage (NEP). By Russian law, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) stretches from Kara Gate at the southern tip of the island of Novaya Zemlya east to the Bering Strait, and encompasses all routes taken through the exclusive economic zone (EEZ), 200 nautical miles out from the coast. Notably the special rules and regulations used along the NSR do not apply to the Barents Sea, thus the NSR is not a trans-Arctic (ocean to ocean) routing option. However, whatever one’s perspective, the NSR has evolved into Russia’s “Arctic national waterway,” facilitating the movement of domestic and foreign-flag marine traffic.  

One approach to better understand the complexities of the future of the Russian maritime Arctic is to compile and examine select, high level or strategic drivers of change. The drivers and their uncertainties can provide a framework for developing plausible futures or scenarios for this once remote, but now an emerging, Arctic area. Seven influential factors or drivers of regional change stand out and are included in the following narratives: